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Predicting Inflation : Does The Quantity Theory Help?
Bachmeier, Lance J.; Swanson, Norman R. - 2003
Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263217
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Assessing the Effects of the Terrorist Attacks on the U.S. Economy
Strauß, Hubert - 2001
The terrorist attacks of September 11 have challenged the view that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recovery. This article discusses the effects of the attacks on real GDP taking the Kiel Institute's forecast of September 10 as the baseline scenario. The focus is on assessing the direct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260604
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Internationaler Vergleich der Systeme zur Besteuerung der Land- und Forstwirtschaft
Parsche, Rüdiger; Haug, Peter; Marcelo, Antonio; Nam, … - 2001
as Canada, the United States and Japan. In this context, it is particularly stressed that, instead of applying actual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011698365
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Noise Traders? Trigger Rates, FX Options, and Smiles
Pierdzioch, Christian - 2000
A contingent claims valuation model which allows to highlight the implications of program trading in spot markets for the pricing of European-style foreign currency options and for the volatility strike structure implicit in these contracts is devoloped. The curvature of the volatility strike...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260624
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Do energy prices induce progress in energy-related technology? An empirical study
Schmitz, Simon - 2001
1976 - 1997 für die USA, Japan und bedeutende europäische Länder die Wirkung der Energiepreise auf Innovationen im Bereich … the US, Japan and the major European countries in order to estimate the effect of energy prices on energy … significantly positively correlated with innovation in both Japan and the EU. A tentative interpretation might be that a rise in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295565
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US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?
Horn, Gustav Adolf - 2003
One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260651
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Real wages and business cycle asymmetries
Woitek, Ulrich - 2004
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261205
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Non-linearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2004
This paper proposes a model of the US unemployment rate which accounts for both its asymmetry and its long memory. Our approach, based on the tests of Robinson (1994), introduces fractional integration and nonlinearities simultaneously into the same framework (unlike earlier studies employing a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295392
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The Clinton era and the U.S. business cycle : what did change?
Heilemann, Ullrich; Münch, Heinz Josef - 2005
reduced influence of M2, Net Exports, and Unemployment on the one side and the increase of Real GNP, inflation, Government … forbearing monetary policy made possible by a deficit targeting fiscal policy, low inflation and a productivity jump. However …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296674
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How Different Are Immigrants? : A Cross-Country and Cross-Survey Analysis of Educational Achievement
Schnepf, Sylke Viola - 2004
the USA. The first step of the analysis shows how far countries differ regarding immigrants? educational disadvantage. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010262141