Industrial production in G7 countries is assumed to be driven by two exogenous disturbances. Those disturbances are identified in a VAR model so they can be interpreted as countryspecific and global supply shocks. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed and the relative importance of...

We investigate into the role of the trade channel as important determinant of a country's current account position and the degree of business cycle synchronization with the rest of the world by comparing the predictions of two types of DGE models. It is shown that the behavior of a country's...

War of attrition. President Trump's promises of a quick end to the war are unlikely to come true. German and European policy must shift from providing temporary protection to supporting a productive return to support the Ukrainian economy. At present many Ukrainian refugees still require...

The idea of a golden rule has recently been relaunched in the framework of the debate on the European Green Deal.

Evaluating the costs and benefits of exchange rate stability requires a somewhat different approach for Mercosur than for the EU. EU member countries are highly integrated in terms of trade in goods and services. By contrast, trade integration within Mercosur is much more limited, intra-area...

The global supply of natural gas is fixed in the short run. Europe can replace the missing Russian gas only by bidding more than consumers elsewhere, especially in Asia, are willing to pay. The supply of gas available for Europe is thus highly inelastic; therefore, the marginal cost is an order...

The Great Financial Crisis caused a deep recession and led to very large public deficits. When financial market tensions erupted, many European countries were forced to reduce their deficits. This 'austerity' is often credited with the disappointingly slow recovery during the years after the...

This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) of Austria, Belgium, and Germany. Exploiting a detailed database that covers all the investments and reforms included in the NRRPs and building on insights from semi-structured expert interviews, we...

The success of the recently agreed international tax reform hinges on a technical issue in the design of the Pillar 2 global minimum tax. Pillar 2 ensures the minimum taxation of "residual" (e.g. non-routine) profits at 15%. "Routine" profit is not subject to Pillar 2. The effects depend on...

The Policy Brief analyzes to what extent the funds provided by the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) are used by member states to finance new projects (additionality of public investments). The analysis shows that in the EU-27 there is no significant relationship between the amount of RRF...