This paper proposes a forward-looking indicator of risk in the foreign exchange markets calculated from the implied volatilities of currency options according to the Garman-Kohlhagen model. We discuss the properties of such indicator and stress that it is related to a notion of risk that does...

This paper examines the predictive properties of risk indicators for the foreign exchange markets. In particular it considers the predictive properties of historical volatilities and implied volatilities for movements in various bilateral exchange rates and compares them with the analogous...

The extent of taxation and redistribution Policy is generally determined as a political-economy equilibrium by a balance between those who gain from higher taxes/transfers and those who lose. In a stylized model of migration and human capital formation, we show - somewhat against the...