We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

This paper outlines a methodology for forecasting the components of household final consumption expenditure, which is necessary in order to forecast revenue col- lections from a number of different taxes. A forecast combination approach using autoregressive models, regressions on relative prices...

The paper presents and tests a theory of the demand for money that is derived from a general equilibrium, endogenous growth economy, which in e§ect combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher ináation and...

This paper assesses the ability of general equilibrium models of asset pricing using two recently developed sets of preferences to quantitatively account for the observed variability in the Canadian term structure of interest rates. the preference structures are non-expected utility and habit...

This research considers the positive theory of monetary integration in a general equilibrium monetary model of the world economy. The analysis demonstrates that, in the face of uncertainty and incomplete asset markets, participation in a monetary union may be welfare improving since it...

The paper presents a theory of the demand for money that combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher inflation and financial innovation - that reduces the cost of credit - induce agents to substitute away...