For univariate time series we suggest a new variant of efficient score tests against fractional alternatives. This test has three important merits. First, by means of simulations we observe that it is superior in terms of size and power in some situations of practical interest. Second, it is...

Nonstationary fractionally integrated time series may possibly be fractionally cointegrated. In this paper we propose a test for the null hypothesis of no cointegration. It builds on a static cointegration regression of the levels of the variables as a first step. In a second step, a univariate...

Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping)...

Consider two independent random walks. By chance, there will be spells of association between them where the two processes move in the same direction, or in opposite direction. We compute the probabilities of the length of the longest spell of such random association for a given sample size, and...

We show that previous results on the asymptotic efficiency of OLS versus GLS in the context of trending data carry over to regressors of the fractionally integrated type.

This paper considers cointegration analysis within an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) framework. First, different reparameterizations and interpretations are reviewed. Then we show that the estimation of a cointegrating vector from an ADL specification is equivalent to that from an...

The occurrence of unit roots in economic time series has far reaching consequences for univariate as well as multivariate econometric modelling. Therefore, unit root tests are nowadays the starting point of most empirical time series studies. The oldest and most widely used test is due to Dickey...

Mit den diesjährigen Trägern des Nobelpreises für Wirtschaft, Robert. F. Engle und Clive W.J. Granger, werden zwei Vertreter der Zeitreihenökonometrie geehrt. Wie hat sich durch ihr Werk die statistische Analyse ökonomischer Zeitreihen verändert? Wie wird heute Volatilität auf...

Multiple structural change tests by Bei and Perron (1998) are applied to the regression by Demetrescu, Kuzin and Hassler (2008) in order to detect breaks in the order of fractional integration. With this instrument we tackle time-varying inflation persistence as an important issue for monetary...

We consider a class of panel tests of the null hypothesis of no cointegration and cointegration. All tests under investigation rely on single-equations estimated by least squares, and they may be residual-based or not. We focus on test statistics computed from regressions with intercept only...