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Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295724
A discrete time model of financial markets is considered. It is assumed that the relative jumps of the risky security price are independent non-identically distributed random variables. In the focus of attention is the expected non-risky profit of the investor that arises when the jumps of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293743
financial market that features volatility uncertainty. To have a mathematical consistent framework we use the notion of G … this more complex situation and consider stock price dynamics which exclude arbitrage opportunities. Due to volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285421
-variance analysis of alternative investments has been hampered by the lack of a systematic treatment of volatility in these markets … underlying volatility. For example, in art markets, auction houses often give price guarantees to the seller that resemble put … the price index, allowing to treat the volatility parameter as the object of interest. The model can be estimated using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318789
This paper focuses on the extraction of volatility of financial returns. The volatility process is modeled as a … the volatility is not observable, the logarithm of the daily high-low range is employed as its proxy. The estimation of … parameters and volatility extraction are performed using a modified version of the Kalman filter which takes into account the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322165
We study the modelling of large data sets of high frequency returns using a long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV …, a new method of de-seasonalising the volatility in high frequency data is proposed, that allows for slowly varying … realised volatility to that of a linear long memory model fit to the log realised volatility. The performance of the new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296398
experiment in terms of the square root of the volatility function .... As an application, simple rateoptimal estimators of the … volatility and efficient estimators of the integrated volatility are constructed. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281553
A stochastic model for pure-jump diffusion (the compound renewal process) can be used as a zero-order approximation and as a phenomenological description of tick-by-tick price fluctuations. This leads to an exact and explicit general formula for the martingale price of a European call option. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308122
Market analysts and central banks often use the implied volatility of FX options as an indicator of expected exchange … deviate the value of implied volatility from the exchange rate variability expected by the market. These biasing factors are … one month. However, implied volatility provides a biased estimate, and does not encompass the information included in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010322417
In this article we examine how model selection in neural networks can be guided by statistical procedures such as hypotheses tests, information criteria and cross validation. The application of these methods in neural network models is discussed, paying attention especially to the identification...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010299652