This paper was commissioned by DG ECFIN from the EU Commission as part of the "EMU@10" project and is published in Hungarian language by the permission of the EU Commission. The original English language version of the paper is available at:...

A cikkben a szerzõk azt vizsgálják, hogy az EU-hoz 2004 óta csatlakozott tizenkét új tagállam az euróövezethez való csatlakozás szempontjából milyen mértékben felel meg az optimális valutaövezet elmélete (Optimal Currency Area, OCA) által támasztott kritériumoknak. Fõ...

The paper discusses the risks and challenges faced by the new members on the road to the euro and the strategies for and timing of euro adoption. We investigate the real-nominal convergence nexus from the perspective of euro area entry. We argue that the initial level of economic development as...

Az új EU tagállamok gazdasági folyamatainak szembeötlõ jellegzetessége az egy fõre jutó GDP-ben mutatkozó felzárkózásuk, illetve az ezzel kapcsolatos árszínvonalbeli konvergencia. Amennyiben ez a jövõben is folytatódni fog, akkor az inflációra és árfolyamra vonatkozó...

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is, fiscal convergence (in the form of persistently similar ratios of government surplus/deficit to GDP)...

We demonstrate that short-run real exchange effective rate changes are dominated by nominal effective exchange rate changes, while inflation rates are sticky and contribute little to short-run real exchange rate changes. These observations allow a rather accurate real-time approximation of the...

Ensuring prosperity and fairness is a dual challenge with major policy implications. Using various micro datasets, Work Package 5 of the MICROPROD project (https:// www.microprod.eu/) made significant contributions to our understanding of the distributive implications of trade and technological...

Achieving the European Union's climate goals and decoupling from Russian energy will require a massive increase in green public spending, which will be difficult when EU fiscal rules requiring fiscal consolidation are reinstated. The two major proposals to address the conflicting goals of fiscal...

We study the economic implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, by scrutinising global trade volumes and commodity prices, trade balances and bilateral trade flows between major economic powers and Russia. We find that energy prices increased more in 2021 than in 2022, suggesting that the...

The pandemic and subsequent price shocks triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have increased longer-term fiscal pressures in the European Union through higher debt, higher expected real interest rates and higher public investment needs. This Policy Brief makes some simple quantitative...