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The canonical New Keynesian model specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal cost. This paper … assess the model's ability to match the behavior of actual inflation. In accordance to the literature, the model fits Euro … and a completely failing model. Allowing for inflation inertia through backward-looking indexation narrows confidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295672
This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent … assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are … not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual inflation and instead derived from the European Commission’s Consumer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605165
whether it helps to use the information that was available at the time in the choice of instruments in the estimation of the … time information in the estimation of the Phillips curve is in using forecasts made at the time to represent expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295655
Various inflation forecasting models are compared using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. We focus on … the question of whether monetary aggregates are useful for forecasting inflation, but unlike previous work we examine a … are also reported on. The first shows that cointegration vector parameter estimation error is crucial when using VEC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263217
This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in … moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the two models perform similarly in almost all countries. Under estimated … unconditional moments of inflation dynamics better while sticky information is more successful in matching co-movement of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274449
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on ?frictional growth? describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276419
Phillips curve, the sum of coefficients associated with expected inflation is far beyond unity, whatever measure of expected … inflation rates is employed. Therefore, either the NAIRU concept is not applicable to Germany or, as it is our suggestion, one … estimates the unemployment rate that is compatible with a tolerable inflation rate of say 2 percent following roughly the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297970
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on "frictional growth," describing the … able to work themselves out fully. In this context, monetary shocks have a gradual and delayed effect on inflation and … permanent nominal rigidities, and no departure from rational expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281025
This paper offers a reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff, based on ?frictional growth,? describing the … expectations, there is a long-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff. Our empirical analysis suggests that this Phillips curve may be … reasonably flat. We show that the persistence of inflation and unemployment, in response to monetary policy shocks, is related to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010313770
A slanted-L curve is well-suited to represent the non-linearity of the celebrated Phillips curve. We show this using cross-country data of major industrialized economies since 2009, including the inflationary surge of the 2020s. At high unemployment rates, an increase in demand reduces...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494995