This paper applies linear and neural network-based “thick” models for forecasting inflation based on Phillips–curve formulations in the USA, Japan and the euro area. Thick models represent “trimmed mean” forecasts from several neural network models. They outperform the best performing...

The money-age distribution is hump-shaped for the US post-war economy. There is no clear cut relation between the variation of money holdings within generations and age. Furthermore, money is found to be only weakly correlated with both income and wealth. We analyze three motives for money...

This paper examines the international transmission of financial shocks which originate in, and are partially offset by, quantitative easing in a large financially-stressed country. Using a two-country model, we evaluate the adjustment in the non-stressed home country, following recurring...

This paper shows that signals from the offshore Hong Kong, China spot market for the currency of the People's Republic of China (PRC), the renminbi (listed as CNH), directly affect the volatility of share prices of PRC banks and the overall risks to banking stability in the country. This is...

In July 1997, the economies of East Asia became embroiled in one of the worst financial crises of the postwar period. Yet, prior to the crisis, these economies were seen as models of economic growth experiencing sustained growth rates that exceeded those earlier thought unattainable. Why did the...

This paper presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First,...

This paper presents an analysis of labour market dynamics, in particular of flows in the labour market and how they interact and affect the evolution of unemployment rates and participation rates, the two main indicators of labour market performance. Our analysis has two special features. First,...

This article reviews recent research findings on the effects of fiscal multipliers in normal times, during booms/busts, and in the presence of the zero lower bound. Studies on the effects of fiscal policy in open economy settings as well as contributions on the fiscal-monetary policy mix are...

This paper studies the relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth using an approach based on labor market flows. The framework shows why the Okun coefficient may be constant/time-varying and/or symmetric/asymmetric and that the outcome lies with the behavior of...

Our paper revisits Okun's relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985-2013. We find that the...