Applications tend to ignore that measured TFP reflects the variation of output that cannot be explained by changes in inputs. Such a change is not necessarily technological, so measured TFP differences across firms are an amalgam of technological, efficiency and other differences in attributes,...

A multivariate structural time series model is applied to the factor inputs of a production function (or components thereof) to estimate the Belgian output gap. The usefulness of capacity utilization is also investigated but the variable is not given a prominent status. The number of independent...

This paper is a comprehensive analysis of Hungary's potential output. Since the concept of potential output is not unique, we present various interpretations of potential GDP, along with a large set of techniques for estimating it. Various estimates are presented and robustness analyses are...

Structural time series models applied to the factor inputs of a production function often lead to small output gaps and consequently to erratic measures of potential growth. We introduce a dual cycle model which is an extension to the multivariate trend plus cycle model with phase shifts à la...

Schätzungen des Produktionspotenzials und der Produktionslücke einer Volkswirtschaft sind von großer Bedeutung für die Wirtschaftspolitik. Sie spielen eine wesentliche Rolle für den Europäischen Stabilitäts- und Wachstumspakt und für die im Grundgesetz verankerte Schuldenbremse. In der...

This paper is concerned with the estimation of euro area potential output growth and its decomposition according to the sources of growth. The growth accounting exercise is based on a multivariate structural time series model which combines the decomposition of total output according to the...

Combining micro and macro data, we construct demand-side shocks, which we take to be exogenous for individual firms. We estimate a reduced-form model to describe how firms adjust their production, employment, capital stock, and inventories in response to such shocks. Then, we chose the...

In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies —Canada, the euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States— for the period 1991-2004. The main estimates rely on a structural approach...

Seit 2012 steht die Produktionslücke im Zentrum der Regelbindung der Fiskalpolitik in der Europäischen Union im Rahmen des Fiskalpakts. Die Schätzwerte für die Produktionslücke legen den finanzpolitischen Spielraum fest, unter dem sich die Mitgliedsländer verschulden dürfen. Der Artikel...