This paper reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the U.S. using a four-variable VAR, GARCH-in-mean, asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global...

In this paper we analyse income formation patterns throughout the German industrialisation process (1860-1913) through the analysis of different financial flows. Similar to Neuburger & Stokes (1974), we make use of flow statistics originally estimated by Eistert (1970) with regard to four...

This paper studies fiscal policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model with endogenous technology growth in which scarring can occur endogenously through hysteresis effects in TFP. Both demand- and supply-driven recessions can weaken investment in R&D and technology adoption, thus depressing the...

We introduce endogenous growth in an otherwise standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. Some results follow: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth depends on the persistence of the nominal shocks and on the...

We study monetary policy in a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous growth and knowledge spillovers external to each firm. We find the following results: (i) technology and government spending shocks have different effects on growth; (ii) disinflationary monetary policies entail positive...

We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by unemployment and weak growth. We refer to these episodes as stagnation traps, because they consist in the joint occurrence of a liquidity and a growth...

We consider a real business cycle model with a productive externality and an aggregate non- convex technology set µa la Benhabib and Farmer embodying capacity utilization, which exhibits indeterminacy of the steady state and multiplicity of deterministic equilibria under plausible values of the...

This paper analyzes conditions for determinacy in a new Keynesian model with endogenous growth. Endogenous growth shrinks the determinacy region considerably. Complying with the Taylor principle is not sufficient for determinacy, which decreases in the spillovers from actual on potential output....

We use a simple quantitative asset pricing model to "reverse-engineer" the sequences of stochastic shocks to housing demand and lending standards that are needed to exactly replicate the boom-bust patterns in U.S. household real estate value and mortgage debt over the period 1995 to 2012....

We analyze the implications for monetary policy when deficient aggregate demand can cause a permanent loss in potential output, a phenomenon termed as output hysteresis. In the model, incomplete stabilization of a temporary shortfall in demand reduces the return to innovation, thus reducing TFP...