We propose a novel econometric model for estimating and forecasting cross-sections of time-varying conditional default probabilities. The model captures the systematic variation in corporate default counts across e.g. rating and industry groups by using dynamic factors from a large panel of...

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

In models that have a representation of the form       ) , ( x g y the Wald test for ˆBeta has systematically wrong size in finite samples when the indentifying parameter Gamma is small relative to its estimation error. An alternative test based on linearization of...

This paper proposes a new likelihood-based panel cointegration rank test which extends the test of Orsal and Droge (2012) (henceforth Panel SL test) to allow for crosssectional dependence. The dependence is modelled by unobserved common factors which affect the variables in each cross-section...

This paper proposes two new panel cointegrating rank tests which are robust to cross-sectional dependency. The dependence in the data generating process is modeled using unobserved common factors. The new tests are based on a metaanalytic approach, in which the p-values of the individual...

Current data provide macroeconomic information for a large number of countries and for a long period of time (macro panels). This causes that in these panels slope heterogeneity and crosssection dependence (CSD) are a rule rather than the exception, leading to fixed effects slope estimators to...

In this paper we propose a general approach for estimating stochastic frontier mod- els, suitable when using long panel data sets. We measure efficiency as a linear combi- nation of a finite number of unobservable common factors, having coefficients that vary across firms, plus a time-invariant...

In this article, we propose a new estimator of panel data models with interactive fixed effects and multiple structural breaks that is suitable when the number of time periods, T, is fixed and only the number of cross-sectional units, N, is large. This is done by viewing the determination of the...

This paper takes a multiple testing perspective on the problem of determining the cointegrating rank in macroeconometric panel data with cross-sectional dependence. The testing procedure for a common rank among the panel units is based on Simes' (1986) intersection test and requires only the...

We model 1927-1997 U.S. business failure rates using a time series approach based on unobserved components. Clear evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term movements in default probabilities and default...