We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

We suggest the use of an Internet job-search indicator (the Google Index, GI) as the best leading indicator to predict the US unemployment rate. We perform a deep out-of-sample forecasting comparison analyzing many models that adopt both our preferred leading indicator (GI), the more standard...

Stress tests have become a key tool for banks, supervisors and macro prudential authorities. An aspect of these exercises is the need for statistical models to obtain risk measurements under an adverse scenario and a fundamental question is who should develop such models. If models are developed...

There is increasing debate on whether official-sector stress tests are fit for purpose and deliver what they are designed for. In the EU, this discussion focuses on the costs and benefits of such a large-scale bottom-up exercise and on the possible options to improve its usefulness for banks,...

On June 4-5, 2014, SUERF and Baffi Finlawmetrics jointly organised a Colloquium/Conference “Money, Regulation and Growth: Financing New Growth in Europe” at Bocconi University, Milan. The present SUERF Study includes a selection of papers based on the authors’ contributions to the Milan...