We study the sustainability of public debt in a closed production economy where a benevolent government chooses scal policies, including haircuts on its outstanding debt, in a discretionary manner. Government bonds are held by domestic agents to smooth consumption over time and because they...

This paper studies how sovereign risk – both fundamental and self-fulfilling – shapes the cyclical behavior of optimalfiscal policy. We develop a model with endogenous default costs where market sentiment can induce belief-driven debt rollover crises. Optimal taxes and public spending are...

We propose a model of firm expansion and contraction choices which integrates approaches from the industrial organization and corporate finance literature within one unified setting. Firms respond to shocks to their marginal costs by expanding or contracting output via internal or external...

We study the sustainability of public debt in a closed production economy where a benevolent government chooses fiscal policies, including haircuts on its outstanding debt, in a discretionary manner. Government bonds are held by domestic agents to smooth consumption over time and because they...

This paper studies the effects of overreaction to recent news for macroeconomic outcomes in the context of a quantitative model of sovereign debt and default. Overreaction is formalized in terms of diagnostic expectations that excessively extrapolate from current conditions. Examining historical...