adoption of these policies, and the severity of the economic recessions. One year after the original ex-ante calibration, we …

This paper studies how U.S. local labor markets respond to employment losses that occur during recessions. Following … recessions from 1973 through 2009, we find that areas that lose more jobs during the recession experience persistent relative … result in longer-lasting consequences for local labor markets than previously thought, and that recessions are followed by …

Workers who enter the labor market during recessions experience lasting earnings losses, but the role of non … find that labor market entry during recessions generates a 6 percent reduction in earnings cumulated over the first 15 … recessions. …

analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …