Recent releases of X-13ARIMA-SEATS and JDemetra+ enable their users to choose between the non-parametric X-11 and the parametric ARIMA model-based approach to seasonal adjustment for any given time series without the necessity of switching between different software packages. To ease the...

This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with search unemployment by matching model and data spectra. Price mark-up shocks emerge as the main source of business-cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Key factors in the propagation of these disturbances are a high degree of inflation...

We introduce a new jackknife variance estimator for panel-data regressions. Our variance estimator can be motivated as the conventional leave-one-out jackknife variance estimator on a transformed space of the regressors and residuals using orthonormal trigonometric basis functions. We prove the...

This article reviews several hypotheses that aim at explaining the development of German merchandise exports. Based on cointegration estimation techniques, we examine different determinants for their ability to explain German exports during the period 1992-2016. The estimation results indicate...

The primary objective of the study is to examine the impact of political news (good and bad news) on the returns and volatility of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST-100). Sample data cover the period from January 2008 to December 2017. The main sample was divided into two subperiods to insulate the...

The persuasion rate is a key parameter for measuring the causal effect of a directional message on influencing the recipient's behavior. Its identification has relied on exogenous treatment or the availability of credible instruments, but the requirements are not always satisfied in...

In this article, we use as case study the Spanish economy in the Early Modern period. We use recent time series data for the period 1492 - 1810. We consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a good empirical description of...

This paper estimates the impact of acquisitions on various firm-level performance measures of Hungarian firms. Using difference-in-differences estimation with matching, we show that the performance of the acquirer improves significantly following an acquisition. By controlling for the -...

We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

We use monthly data covering a century-long sample period (1915–2021) to study whether geopolitical risk helps to forecast subsequent gold volatility. We account not only for geopolitical threats and acts, but also for 39 country-specific sources of geopolitical risk. The response of...