This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis...

The growth in variable renewable energy (vRES) and the need for flexibility in power systems go hand in hand. We study how vRES and other factors, namely the price of substitute fuels, power price volatility, structural breaks, and seasonality impact the hedgeable power spreads (profit margins)...

In uniform price, sealed-bid day-ahead electricity auctions, the market price is set at the intersection between aggregate demand and supply functions built by a market operator. Each day, just one agent - the marginal generator - owns the market-clearing plant. Day-ahead auctions are moreover...

A Lévy process is observed at time points of distance delta until time T. We construct an estimator of the Lévy-Khinchine characteristics of the process and derive optimal rates of convergence simultaneously in T and delta. Thereby, we encompass the usual low- and high-frequency assumptions...

We propose a sieve bootstrap framework to conduct pointwise and simultaneous inference for time-varying coefficient regression models based on a nonparametric local linear estimator. The asymptotic validity of the sieve bootstrap in the presence of autocorrelation is established. We find that it...

This article studies nonparametric estimation of a regression model for d = 2 potentially non-stationary regressors. It provides the first nonparametric procedure for a wide and important range of practical problems, for which there has been no applicable nonparametric estimation technique...

Daily returns of financial assets are frequently found to exhibit positive autocorrelation at lag 1. When specifying a linear AR(l) conditional mean, one may ask how this predictability affects option prices. We investigate the dependence of option prices on autoregressive dynamics under...

With the celebrated model of Black and Scholes in 1973 the development of modern option pricing models started. One of the assumptions of the Black and Scholes model is that the risky asset evolves according to a geometric Brownian motion which implies normally distributed log-returns. As...

We present a methodology to estimate fixed cost parameters relevant to the decision to operate, mothballor retire an open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) using a dynamic discrete choice model, based on fuel andelectricity prices, as well as technical data and the operational status of OCGTs in the PJM...

Renewable energy installations are rapidly gaining market share due to falling technology costs and supportive policies. Meanwhile, the energy price crisis resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian war has shifted the energy policy debate toward the question of how consumers can benefit more from the...