more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from …

forecasts made for Romanian by three experts in forecasting: F1, F2 and F3. All the unemployment rate forecasts over the horizon …-Timmermann test, the directional forecasts of F3 and the autumn expectations of F2 are useful and rational. …

In this study a comparative analysis of the forecasts accuracy for Spain (developed country) and Romania (developing … the Spanish institutes provided more accurate forecasts, for the rest of the variables (inflation rate, private … in Romania, E2 provided more accurate forecasts. In Spain, FUNCAS offered better forecasts for GDP growth and private …

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test … relevance to account for serial correlation in economic time series when testing for the value of directional forecasts. …

models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches … expert forecasts. Here several methods of combination are considered: equal weights, optimized weights and weights based on …

. Macroeconomic forecasts and the scenario analysis from the model are also used to inform Treasury's advice across a broad spectrum …

In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment … forecasting range. Next, additional forecasts are computed, by combining the NN methodology with Shift-Share Analysis (SSA). Since … differences in the size and time horizons of the data, the forecasts for West and East Germany are computed separately. The out …