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forecasting financial volatility. We use the auto-covariances of log increments of the multi-fractal process in order to estimate … ?scaling? approach. Our empirical estimates are used in out-of-sample forecasting of volatility for a number of important …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295056
Bayesian forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of … leads to gains in forecasting accuracy for some time series. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295106
forecasting of volatility. However, applicability of MLE is restricted to cases with a discrete distribution of volatility … leads to gains in forecasting accuracy for some time series. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295151
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
models. The forecasting performance is assessed through filtered residuals. The analyses show that the business survey is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312096
In the paper we analyze determinants of the capital market beta risk in Poland in the monthly period 1996-2002. The beta risk is measured as a time-varying parameter estimated in a regression of the Warsaw stock indexes (WIG and WIG20 separately) on major foreign stock market indexes (DJIA,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010315819
forecasting volatility. We outline the genesis of this approach from similar models of turbulent flows in statistical physics and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317979
nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425562
This paper uses multi-level factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287088
-t). Second, we perform a comprehensive panel forecasting analysis of the MSM models as well as other competing volatility models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265243