This paper takes stock of the ECB's macroeconometric modelling strategy by focusing on the models and applications used in the Forecasting and Policy Modelling Division. We focus on the guiding principles underpinning the current portfolio of the main macroeconomic models and illustrate how they...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

In monetary Stock-Flow Consistent (SEC) models, accounting identities reduce the number of behavioral functions to avoid an overdetermined system of equations. We relax this restriction using a differential-algebraic equation framework of constrained dynamics. Agents exert forces the variables...

A linearization technique for binary quadratic programs (BQPs) that comprise linear constraints is presented. The technique, called “inductive linearization”, extends concepts for BQPs with particular equation constraints, that have been referred to as “compact linearization” before, to...

With 23 core econometrics journals now in operation, this study fills a gap in the literature by cataloguing the editorial specifications of each journal, and, more importantly, assessing their impact based on citations to research published in each over the 15-year period beginning in 2001 and...

The generalized method of moments estimator may be substantially biased in finite samples, especially so when there are large numbers of unconditional moment conditions. This paper develops a class of first order equivalent semi-parametric efficient estimators and tests for conditional moment...

The principal purpose of this paper is to adapt to the conditional moment context the GEL unconditional moment methods described in Smith(1997, 2001) and Newey and Smith(2004). In particular we develop GEL estimators which achieve the semiparametric efficiency lower bound. The requisite GEL...

This paper investigates the relationship between intra-industry trade (IIT) and immigration flows using a gravity model for the period 2000-2010 between Portugal and European Union's Member States (EU-27). The present study uses the methodology of Kandogan (2003) for separating IIT into its...

Based on its outward-oriented development strategy, respectable growth, increased integration into world trade and financial markets, and imperfect though vibrant and wide-based democracy, Turkey is often cited as a development model for other countries in the region and elsewhere. Countering...