To what extent can the bootstrap be applied to conditional mean models â€" such as regression or time series models â€" when the volatility of the innovations is random and possibly non-stationary? In fact, the volatility of many economic and financial time series displays persistent...

It is well established that the shocks driving many key macro-economic and financial variables display time-varying volatility. In this paper we consider estimation and hypothesis testing on the coefficients of the co-integrating relations and the adjustment coefficients in vector...

This paper uses tax and student loan administrative data to measure how the earnings of English graduates around 10 years into the labour market vary with gender, institution attended subject and socioeconomic background. The English system is competitive to enter, with some universities...

In this paper we replace the Gaussian errors in the standard Gaussian, linear state space model with stochastic volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are ineffective, but that this problem can be removed by...

This paper compares survey based labour earnings data for English graduates, taken from the UK's Labour Force Survey (LFS), with the UK Government administrative sources of official individual level earnings data. This type of administrative data has few sample selection issues, is substantially...