We use monthly data covering a century-long sample period (1915–2021) to study whether geopolitical risk helps to forecast subsequent gold volatility. We account not only for geopolitical threats and acts, but also for 39 country-specific sources of geopolitical risk. The response of...

We examine the forecasting power of a daily newspaper‐based index of uncertainty associated with infectious diseases (EMVID) for real estate investment trusts (REITs) realized market variance of the United States (US) via the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR‐RV) model....

Utilizing a machine learning technique known as random forests, we study whether regional output growth uncertainty helps to improve the accuracy of forecasts of regional output growth for 12 regions of the UK using monthly data for the period from 1970 to 2020. We use a stochastic volatility...

This paper examines the propagation of oil price uncertainty shocks to real equity prices using a large-scale Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model of 26 advanced and emerging stock markets. The GVAR framework allows us to capture the transmission of local and global shocks, while...

We examine the predictive value of El Niño and La Niña weather episodes for the subsequent realized variance of 16 agricultural commodity prices. To this end, we use high‐frequency data covering the period from 2009 to 2020 to estimate the realized variance along realized skewness, realized...

The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less affected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less prone to extreme risks, is obeyance of...

The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less a ected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less prone to extreme risks, is obeyance of...

Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that...

This paper uses the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 and from January 03, 1977 to March 24, 2014. Based on...

This study examines the relationship between healthcare expenditure and disposable income in the 50 US states over the period 1966-2009 using fractional integration and cointegration techniques. The degree of integration and nonlinearity of both series are found to vary considerably across...