We examine the upward labor income mobility of men and women in Germany using the GSOEP Cross National Equivalent File. Women have greater overall income mobility. However, utilizing a measure of upward income mobility and calculating the posterior probability that men's upward income mobility...

One of the more common methods used to model international real business cycles is through the use of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Guo and Sturzenegger (1998) argue that an increasing returns to scale production technology can improve the performance of such a model....

Inference on the long-run properties of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) consisting wholly of I(1) variables are made using Bayesian methods. In particular, the implications on the forecast and impulse response function distributions of directly estimating and restricting the drift parameters of...

How is migration related to informal activities? They may be complementary since new migrants may have difficulty finding employment in formal work, so many of them end up informally employed. Alternatively, migration and informality may be substitutes since migrants' incomes in their new...

We present a new monthly index of the yield on junk (high yield) bonds from 1910-1955. We then use the index to reexamine some of the main debates about the financial history of the interwar years. A close look at junk bond yields: (1) strengthens the view that the decline in lending standards...

John Maynard Keynes composed The General Theory as a response to the Great Crash and Great Depression with all their devastating consequences for the US macro economy and financial markets, as well as the rest of the world. The role of expectations his new theory set out has been widely...

We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability...