The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the structure and dynamics of professionals' forecast of inflation. Recent papers have focused on their forecast errors and how they may be affected by informational rigidities, or inattentiveness. In this paper we extend the existing literature...

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap....

The purpose of the present paper is to provide a simple model which explains how households (or non-experts) form their inflation forecasts. The paper contributes to the existing literature and the understanding of how inflation expectations are formed in two ways. Firstly, we present an...

We analyse the extent to which firm-level uncertainty is affected by aggregate uncertainty. Firm-level uncertainty is constructed from a large and monthly panel dataset of manufacturing firms. We find that aggregate uncertainty has a positive and robust impact on firm-level uncertainty. This...

Recent research has established that households learn from professional forecasters as they form their inflation expectations. Professionals forecasts are transmitted, or 'absorbed', throughout the population slowly but eventually. This provides the microfoundations for 'sticky information...

The purpose of the present paper is to study how households form inflation expectations. Using a novel survey-base dataset of Italian households' opinions of inflation we investigate two separate, but related, types of behavior: 'inattentiveness' and 'anchoring'. The present analysis extends the...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the microfoundations of how non-experts' (or general public) form inflation expectations. Using a unique dataset we investigate the range of near rational inflation expectations. An important contribution to understanding how non-experts form their...

The main purpose of this paper is to develop generalized 'State Dependent Models' (SDM) in a multivariate framework for empirical analysis. This significantly extends the existing SDM which only allow univariate analysis following a simple AR process. The extended model enables greater...

This study has adopted the actual household expenditure data from the national accountstoconstruct a true inflation rate (using the Fisher index) and found that the official inflationrateinthe 33 OECD countries was an overestimate of true inflation for 22 and underestimate in11countries in the...

Tian and Dixon (2022) derived the variance of the estimator of cross-sectional distribution of durations (CSD). In this paper, we apply both Fieller's method and the Delta method to derive confidence interval of CSD using this variance formula. (CSD) is a new estimator derived by Dixon (2012)....