To assess the predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth, we distinguish short-run from long-run predictability by using two different approaches. First, following Dufour and Renault (1998) a test procedure is proposed to test for causality at different...

For many economic time-series variables that are observed regularly and frequently, for example weekly, the underlying activity is not distributed uniformly across the year. For the aim of predicting annual data, one may consider temporal aggregation into larger subannual units based on an...

The global nature of the Czech economy means that quantitative knowledge of the influence of the exchange rate provides useful information for all participants in the international economy. Systematic and academic research show that the issue of estimating the Czech crown/Chinese yuan exchange...

For several decades, demographic forecasts had predicted that the majority of Germany's cities and rural areas would experience population decline in the early 21st century. Instead, recent trends show a growing population size in three out of every four German districts. As a result, there are...

The growing political polarization may influence a critical input for policymaking: people's economic expectations. This study examines whether political preferences shape individuals' forecasts for key economic indicators (using a preregistered online experiment in the context of Argentina's...

Banks are concerned with the assessment of the risk of financial distress before giving out a loan. Many researchers proposed the use of models based on the Neural Networks in order to help the banker better make a decision. The objective of this paper is to explore a new practical way based on...