We show that updates to macroeconomic expectations among professional forecasters exhibit an offsetting pattern where increases in current-quarter predictions lead to decreases in three quarter ahead predictions. We further document evidence of individual overreaction at the quarterly frequency...

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of up- or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework...

Recent work has analyzed the forecasting performance of standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, but little attention has been given to DSGE models that incorporate nonlinearities in exogenous driving processes. Against that background, we explore whether incorporating...

Economy-wide models are an important tool used by fiscal authorities and central banks to support the provision of sound assessment of the economic outlook. The Treasury Macroeconometric Model of Australia ("EMMA") is a framework to support macroeconomic forecasting, and counterfactual policy...

We assess distributive, macroeconomic, and CO2 emission impacts of CO2 tax schemes in Austria by applying the macroeconomic Input-Output model DYNK[AUT]. The tax schemes analysed focus primarily on CO2 emissions not covered by the European Emission Trading System (ETS), applying different CO2...

This paper presents a methodology to integrate cost-benefit analysis and SAM-CGE-based impact evaluation. While the two types of analysis have developed in parallel and without a clear connection, there is growing consensus that the two approaches should be integrated for complex investment...

Common approaches to test for the economic value of directional forecasts are based on the classical Chi-square test for independence, Fisher’s exact test or the Pesaran and Timmerman (1992) test for market timing. These tests are asymptotically valid for serially independent observations....

The paper aims at showing that one of the main channels by which the US 2007 financial crisis became a real and global economic crisis is the 'confidence channel', i.e. that the financial crisis affected firms, banks and households' expectations and confidence, thus leading to what they were...

Both from theoretical and practical viewpoints, I argue that the New Keynesian model's forward-looking IS curve should be derived by quadratic approximation. This leaves uncertainty in the basic three-equation model. After adding exogenous AR(1) processes, I examine the results by numerical...

Computable General Equilibrium Models and Macro-Econometric Models are deeply disaggregated macro-economic systems, which are used in economic environmental studies to explain the emissions of pollutions and the extraction of resources. CGE models are based on neoclassical theory depicting...