In this paper, we present an evolutionary model of industry dynamics yielding endogenous business cycles with 'Keynesian' features. The model describes an economy composed of firms and consumers/workers. Firms belong to two industries. The first one performs R&D and produces heterogeneous...

After the Global Financial Crisis a controversial rush to fiscal austerity followed in many countries. Yet research on the effects of austerity on macroeconomic aggregates was and still is unsettled, mired by the difficulty of identifying multipliers from observational data. This paper...

The inverse relationship between unemployment and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), commonly known as Okun?s law, has been traditionally analysed in the economic literature. Its application to Spain is interesting as the strong impact of business cycles on unemployment is a particular feature of the...

This paper employs a Markov regime-switching approach to investigate whether the Great Moderation is over since the start of the late 2000s recession. The results confirm that the recent financial crisis did cause a simultaneous high-volatility period among the G7 countries. However, the...

In this paper, I study the drop of real GDP volatility which has been observed in the United States during the postwar period. This paper thoroughly estimates how much sectoral shifts contributed to this phenomenon called the Great Moderation. In a short section, Stock and Watson (2003) find...

The interferences among some financial, economic and monetary variables are checked as an indicator of economic performance in the long run and for the monetary policy applied between the Great Moderation (GM) of 1987-2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. For achieving this target,...

This study re-assesses the validity of the quantity theory of money (QTM) for the very long sample, 1870 to 2020, for 18 industrial countries using the dataset from Jordà et al. (2017). It considers structural changes in the economic and financial sectors and changes in monetary policy...

The paper examines the processes underlying economic fluctuations by investigating the volatility moderation of U.S. economy in the early 1980's. We decompose the volatility decline using a dynamic factor framework into a common stochastic trend, common transitory component and idiosyncratic...

Aggregated output in industrialized countries has become less volatile over the past decades. Whether this Great Moderation" can be found in firm level data as well remains disputed. We study the evolution of firm level output volatility using a balanced panel dataset on German firms that covers...

This paper is concerned with the apparent change in the U.S. oil price-macroeconomy relationship. It is investigated to what extent this change can be accounted for by the large oil price surges witnessed in the 1970s. The innovative approach of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the...