We propose a new approach to analyze economic shocks. Our new procedure identifies economic shocks as exogenous shifts in a function; hence, we call them "functional shocks." We show how to identify such shocks and how to trace their effects in the economy via VARs using "VARs with functional...

We propose a new information criterion for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs) of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) macroeconomic models. An advantage of our procedure is that it allows researchers to select the impulse responses that...

Survey data on household expectations of inflation are routinely used in economic analysis, yet it is not clear to what extent households are able to articulate their expectations in survey interviews. We propose an alternative approach to recovering households' implicit expectations of...

In this study, we examine the impact of a student's household socioeconomic status (SES) rank within a class on two critical factors affecting the accumulation of human capital: school bullying victimization and school absence. We identify the effect from the variation of a within-class SES rank...

In this paper, we establish the consistency of the model selection criterion based on the quasi-marginal likelihood (QML) obtained from Laplace-type estimators. We consider cases in which parameters are strongly identified, weakly identified and partially identified. Our Monte Carlo results...

We examine whether and how teachers' major fields of study affect students' achievement, exploiting within-student variation across subfields in natural science (i.e., physics, chemistry, biology, and Earth science). Using middle-school students' data from the Trends in International Mathematics...

We derive the Bayes estimator of vectors of structural VAR impulse responses under a range of alternative loss functions. We also derive joint credible regions for vectors of impulse responses as the lowest posterior risk region under the same loss functions. We show that conventional impulse...

Several recent studies have expressed concern that the Haar prior typically imposed in estimating sign-identified VAR models may be unintentionally informative about the implied prior for the structural impulse responses. This question is indeed important, but we show that the tools that have...

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not garantuee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indiciation that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper we question this conventional...