Showing 1 - 10 of 441
We investigate the behavior of the equilibrium price-rent ratio for housing in a simple Lucas-type asset pricing model. We allow for time-varying risk aversion (via external habit formation) and time-varying persistence and volatility in the stochastic process for rent growth, consistent with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143817
Many modern macro finance models imply that excess returns on arbitrary assets are predictable via the price-dividend ratio and the variance risk premium of the aggregate stock market. We propose a simple empirical test for the ability of such a model to explain the cross-section of expected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271695
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933957
We investigate if unemployment fluctuations generate predictability in the cross-section of currency excess returns. To … assess the predictability exerted by unemployment fluctuations, we sort currencies according to past growth in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015418263
predictability of return volatility at longer horizons. This paper investigates the predictability of return volatility of the German … predictability and assumed volatility models. In Monte Carlo simulatiost is compared with two alternative model-free test procedures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370003
Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494966
encompassed the predictability of excess returns for all of the bonds considered. This paper makes several contributions to the … predictability of excess returns and, in so doing, show that neither FB"s model nor CP"s model provides information about the … predictability of excess returns. Second, I show that the "predictive power" of FB"s model is due solely to the high correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014523075
In this study, I investigate the robustness of the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle to the configuration of the research design. Using the regression- as well as the portfolio-based concept, I start with the replication of the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle approving the findings of Ang et al....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528857
In this paper we test the ability of three of the most popular methods to forecast the South African currency crisis of June 2006. In particular we are interested in the out-ofsample performance of these methods. Thus, we choose the latest crisis to conduct an out-of-sample experiment. In sum,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269920
predictable by the dividend yield and that dividend predictability is clearly stronger than return predictability in medium … than 20% p.a.). In an economic assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270108