This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard...

Feenstra and Hanson (1997) have argued in the context of the North American Free Trade Agreement that US outsourcing to Mexico leads to an increase in the skill premium in both the US and Mexico. In this paper we show on the example of Austria and Poland that with the new international division...

Feenstra and Hanson (1997) have argued in the context of the North American Free Trade Agreement that US outsourcing to Mexico leads to an increase in the skill premium in both the US and Mexico. In this paper we show on the example of Austria and Poland that with the new international division...

The paper takes a first look at the host and home country effects of German FDI in Eastern Europe (EE) based on new survey data of 1050 investment projects in EE by 420 German multinationals during the 1990s. We find that German investors transfer a substantial amount of financial capital to EE....

Feenstra and Hanson (1997) have argued in the context of the North American Free Trade Agreement that US outsourcing to Mexico leads to an increase in the skill premium in both the US and Mexico. In this paper we show on the example of Austria and Poland that with the new international division...

Global imports subject to pre-shipment inspections (PSI) – a practice under which imports need to undergo a third party review process before shipment – shrank from 700 bn USD in 2010 to 87 bn in 2018. However, only little is known about the trade impact of such procedures, which on the one...

Economic theory suggests that countries' tariff commitments in trade agreements reflect their import market power at the time of negotiations. However, as countries grow, their market power in different sectors can change in unforeseen ways and their commitments may no longer reflect changed...

The WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) has been predicted to bring about an expansion in trade flows and real income gains. To date, there is still very limited empirical evidence on the actual post-implementation impact of the TFA. This paper provides an assessment, combining econometric...

Some countries have voiced unease about differences between their own tariff rates and those of major trading partners, calling for more "reciprocity". These calls raise the question how large the negative spillover effects of countries' tariffs on others have become over time. Given a presumed...

Economic theory has made considerable progress in explaining why sovereign countries cooperate in trade. Central to most theories of trade cooperation are issues of self-enforcement: The threat of reprisal by an aggrieved party maintains the initial balance of concessions and prevents...