We assess monetary convergence preceding the implementation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) through Kalman filtering estimates of the risk premium of eleven forward exchange rates of European and non-European currencies. Since all participating currencies are in effect identical from...

On 23rd February 2017, SUERF and EY organized a conference on "Brexit and the Implications for Financial Services" at EY's offices, Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London. While the outcome of the Brexit negotiations remains highly uncertain, the conference discussed the burning questions for...

The likely extension of the euro area has triggered a debate on the organization of the ECB, in particular on the apparent mismatch between relative economic size and voting rights in the Council. We present a simple model of optimal representation in a federal central bank addressing this...

Recent research suggests that adopting a common currency increases bilateral trade. In this paper, I explore experiences of currency union entry in the post-war period and find no effect on trade. Previous results derived from a large panel data set (covering more than 200 countries from 1948...

We review the competing explanations of the 2007-2008 global crisis, recall how governments around the world had to depart from established policy stances, and reflect on the legacy of the crisis both in terms of future challenges and changes in policy doctrine. The G-20 has addressed important...

1) Stability Oriented Monetary and Prudential Policies in EU Accession Countries, by Michael C. Bonello 2) Ensuring Financial Stability: Global and European Perspectives, by Fabrizio Saccomanni 3) Foreign Bank Ownership: A Bonus or Threat for Financial Stability? by Claudia M. Buch, Jörn...

In this paper I outline – from a practitioner’s as well as from a researcher’s perspective – several of the key developments that took place during the last century in monetary policy. In particular, I describe how the monetary system evolved from gold standard, prevailing throughout...

This paper explores whether different funding structures-including the source, instrument, currency, and counterparty location of funding-affected the extent of financial stress experienced in various countries and sectors during the Covid-19 spread in early 2020. We measure financial stress...

If there is exchange market pressure (EMP), monetary authorities can use the interest rate and official interventions to offset this depreciation tendency, or they can let the exchange rate change. We introduce a new approach to derive how these three variables should be combined to measure EMP....

Sudden capital outflows were at the heart of the 1997-98 Asian crisis. Ten years later, capital flows are back on the policy agenda, but in a very different context. The countries of East Asia are now getting more inflows than they can effectively absorb and the upward pressure on exchange rates...