Neben einer theoretischen Analyse ausgewählter klassischer und moderner Performancemaße präsentieren wir in diesem Papier eine speziell zum Zweck der Performanceanalyse entwickelte Erweiterung des Funktionsumfanges von MS-Excel. Der vorgestellte VBA-Quellcode ermöglicht es, die beschriebenen...

This paper studies market selection in an Arrow-Debreu economy with complete markets where agents learn over misspecified models. Under model misspecification, standard Bayesian learning loses its formal justification and biased learning processes may provide a selection advantage. However,...

The approximate agents' wealth and price invariant densities of the prediction market model presented in Kets et al.(2014) is derived using the Fokker-Planck equation of the associated continuous-time jump process. We show that the approximation obtained from the evolution of log-wealth...

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...

In this paper I study the relationship between rationality and asset prices when agents have heterogeneous and incorrect beliefs about future events. Using the fully rational pricing as a benchmark, I show that when agents behave according to the Subjective Generalized Kelly rule (Bottazzi et...

We consider a repeated betting market populated by two agents who wage on a binary event according to generic betting strategies. We derive new simple criteria to establish the relative wealth of the two agents in the long run, only based on the odds they believe fair and how much they would bet...

We consider a market economy where two rational agents are able to learn the distribution of future events. In this context, we study whether moving away from the standard Bayesian belief updating, in the sense of under-reaction to some degree to new information, may be strategically convenient...

The behavioural finance literature attributes the persistent market misvaluation observed in real data to the presence of deviations from rational thinking of the actors involved. Cognitive biases and the use of simple heuristics can be described using expected utility maximising agents that...

We consider an exchange economy with heterogeneous agents and multiple assets and investigate the coupled dynamics of assets' prices and agents' wealth. We assume that agents have heterogeneous beliefs and invest on each asset a fraction of wealth proportional to its expected dividends. Our main...

In financial and actuarial applications, marginal risks and their dependence structure are often modelled separately. While it is sometimes reasonable to assume that the marginal distributions are ‘known’, it is usually quite involved to obtain information on the copula (dependence...