Showing 1 - 10 of 16,305
This paper applies the Campbell-Shiller (1988) methodology to estimate a price dividend model with volatility and … inflation risk, extending existing models in this field. The model fits the data well over the period 1979-2002 for the Euro … that Fed policy remained stable, there was not much of attention to asset bubbles. For the Euro Area, historically, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295476
We study the dynamics of a Lucas-tree model with finitely lived agents who "learn from experience." Individuals update expectations by Bayesian learning based on observations from their own lifetimes. In this model, the stock price exhibits stochastic boom-and-bust fluctuations around the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605442
volatility but are only able to outperform the passive funds in downturns. Simulations confirm the emergence of two regimes: a … bubble increases for low market liquidity and high switching speed of investors. The market volatility increases for strong … reswitching activities and short-term thinking of bounded rational investors. Negative bubbles (market prices lower than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010323727
This paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326340
and thereby excess volatility, persistence of price-dividend ratios, long-horizon return predictability and a risk premium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604908
In this paper, we study the dynamic interdependencies between high-frequency volatility, liquidity demand as well as …. Liquidity is causal for future volatility but not vice versa. Furthermore, trade sizes are negatively driven by past trading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263738
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010294979
We investigate the predictability of both volatility and volume for a large sample of Japanese stocks. The particular … practically always improves upon the na?ve forecast provided by historical volatility. As a somewhat surprising result, we also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295136
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of three popular variants of the non-linear GARCH models, namely VS-GARCH, GJR-GARCH and Q-GARCH, with the symmetric GARCH(1,1) model as a benchmark. The application involves ten European stock price indexes. Forecasts produced by each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335762
straightforward channels. The result is a macroeconomic model that allows for the endogenous development of stock price bubbles. Even … used to reduce volatility and distortion of the macroeconomic aggregates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010302700