When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed, in...

Female life expectancy has almost universally been higher than male life expectancy. But, both have increased rapidly during the past century. European countries differ as regards the magnitude and time trends of the female-male difference. In countries that can be characterised as Egalitarian...

Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out...

We propose a new view of initial nonresponse bias in longitudinal surveys. Under certain conditions, an initial bias may "fade-away" over consecutive waves. This effect is discussed in a Markovian framework. A general contraction theorem for time inhomogeneous Markov chains is presented. The...

We study the welfare effects of earnings testing flat-rate old-age benefits in a quantitative overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic labor income risk. In our model economy, even a moderate earnings testing reduces individuals' expected lifetime utility, whenever other taxes are taken...

The earnings-related pension system is partially pre-funded in Finland and has currently large reserves. This has roused debate whether the pension funds should take a more active role in promoting employment, growth and domestic ownership of the firms. We analyse the justifications presented...

We study old age care expenditures and means to prepare for them. The expected size of the expenditures is described both from the point of view of individuals and the municipalities who provide the services. We use a numerical stochastic life cycle model to research how much various individuals...

We study the extent to which retired households in Finland could supplement their mandatory pension benefits by releasing their equity. We also consider the tax treatment of different financial products that turn wealth into an income stream. In addition, we use a life cycle consumption-savings...

Life expectancies are rapidly increasing and uncertain in all countries in Europe. To keep pension systems affordable, policy reforms are to be implemented which will encourage individuals to work longer. In this paper we analyze the impact of working and living longer on pension incomes in five...

Abstract:We develop a model of the housing market that features both financial and matching frictions. In the model, risk-averse households may save or borrow in order to smooth consumption over time and finance owner housing. Each household either rents or owns its house. Some renter households...