Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper we study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent impacts on...

Applying a probabilistic causal approach, we define a class of time series causal models (TSCM) based on stationary Bayesian networks. A TSCM can be seen as a structural VAR identified by the causal relations among the variables. We classify TSCMs into observationally equivalent classes by...

The objective of this paper is to apply the method developed in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran, and Shin (2000) to build a structural model for Germany with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. The modelling strategy consists of a set of long-run structural relationships suggested by...

Applying a probabilistic causal approach, we define a class of time series causal models (TSCM) based on stationary Bayesian networks. A TSCM can be seen as a structural VAR identified by the causal relations among the variables. We classify TSCMs into observationally equivalent classes by...

To provide an modelling strategy with transparent and theoretically coherent foundation has been one of the targets of the paper by Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin. They develop a core model for a small open economy based production technology, arbitrage conditions, flow identities and long-run...

Over-borrowing and financial stress has recently become an important issue in macroeconomic and policy discussions in the US as well as in the EU. In this paper the authors study two regimes of financial stress. In a regime of high financial stress, stress shocks can have large and persistent...