We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

The common perception in the literature is that current dividend yields are uninformative about future dividends, but contain some information about future stock returns. In this paper, we show that this finding reverses when looking at a broad panel of countries outside the U.S.. In particular,...

A sizeable literature reports that financial market analysts and forecasters herd for reputational reasons. Using new data from a large survey of professional forecasters' expectations about stock market movements, we find strong evidence that the expected average of all forecasters' forecasts...

Carry Trades sind eine seit langem praktizierte, sehr populäre und äußerst profitable Handelsstrategie auf Devisenmärkten. Die hohe durchschnittliche Rendite von Carry Trades bei gleichzeitig vermeintlich nicht übermäßigem Risiko erscheint überraschend, da Carry Trades auf der Annahme...

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of...

We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically...

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally...

Studie zu Dispozinsen / Ratenkrediten Aktenzeichen: 514-06.01-2810HS034 Laufzeit 8/2011 – 5/2012 - Zusammenfassung – In Deutschland verfügen etwa 80 Prozent der Haushalte über einen Dispositionskredit. Bei beträchtlicher Variation liegt der eingeräumte Kreditrahmen bei knapp dem 3-fachen...

Based on a rich panel of household data, we investigate the determinants of the use of consumer credit in Germany. We find that the usage frequency of an easily accessible, but relatively expensive source of consumer credit decreases with financial literacy but is unrelated to household income....

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals´ expectations vary considerably as they generally...