We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

Renewable energies are meant to produce a large share of the future electricity demand. However, the availability of wind and solar power depends on local weather conditions and therefore weather characteristics must be considered when optimizing the future electricity mix. In this article we...

Electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E) is supposed to increase signi ficantly within the coming decades. However, uncertainty about the progress of necessary infrastructure investments, public acceptance and cost developments of renewable energies renders the achievement of...

As an attempt to fi ght global warming, many countries try to reduce CO2 emissions in the power sector by significantly increasing the proportion of renewable energies (RES-E). A highly intermeshed electricity transmission grid allows the achievement of this target cost-efficiently by enabling...

Though climate physical and transition risks will likely affect socio-economic dynamics along any transition pathways, their unfolding is still poorly understood. This also affects the development of climate-change policies to achieve sustainable growth. In this paper, we discuss a series of...

In this work, we ask whether tradable emissions permits, based on the cap-and-trade principle, provide better climate change and economic projections than alternative regulations for GHG emissions, such as operational permits which are commonly used to mitigate non-GHG emissions (prevention...

We present a simple approach to transform a deterministic numerical model, where several agents simultaneously make decisions, into a stochastic model. This approach, which builds on scenario aggregation, a numerical method developed to solve decision problems under uncertainty, is used to build...

The EU member states have declared to strongly increase the share of Renewable Energy Sources in the next decades. Given a large deployment of wind and solar capacities as well as limited cost-efficient storage technologies, this has two major impacts on electricity systems. First, the...

By 2050, the European Union aims to reduce greenhouse gases by more than 80 %. The EU member states have therefore declared to strongly increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the next decades. Given a large deployment of wind and solar capacities, there are two major impacts...

In liberalized power systems, generation and transmission services are unbundled, but remain tightly interlinked. Congestion management in the transmission network is of crucial importance for the efficiency of these inter-linkages. Different regulatory designs have been suggested, analyzed and...