Asset price processes are completely described by information processes and investors´ preferences. In this paper we derive the relationship between the process of investors´ expectations of the terminal stock price and asset prices in a general continous time pricing kernel framework. To...

A market is described by two correlated asset prices. But only one of them is traded while the contingent claim is a function of both assets. We solve the mean-variance hedging prob- lem completely and prove that the optimal strategy consists of a modified pure hedge expressible in terms of the...

This paper analyzes the effect of non-constant elasticity of the pricing kernel on asset return characteristics in a rational expectations model. It is shown that declining elasticity of the pricing kernel can lead to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Also,...

This paper presents a simple rational expectations model of intertemporal asset pricing. It shows that state-independent heterogeneous risk aversion of investors is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to predictability of asset returns and high and...

This paper presents a simple rational expectations model of intertemporal asset pricing. It shows that heterogeneous risk aversion of investors is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility....

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters have become more overconfident. What's more, more experienced forecasters have learned to be overconfident, and hence are more...

This paper presents and compares several time-series models for returns of broadbased stock indices. These models nest a nonlinear asymmetric GARCH (NGARCH) model as a special case. Some of these models are empirically motivated ad-hoc specifications others are derived from a representative...

Recent research suggests that the power law is one of the most universal laws in nature and it also seems to work quite fine in economics and finance. In this paper we show that the power law explains extremely well the relationship between the value of broad-based market indices and their...

As a group, market forecasters are egregiously overconfident. In conformity to the dynamic model of overconfidence of Gervais and Odean (2001), successful forecasters become more overconfident. What?s more, more experienced forecasters have ?learned to be overconfident,? and hence are more...