This paper presents new econometric specifications for the Brazilian exports in the period 1995-2009 using data from the Quarterly Accounts and allowing for nonlinearities. In the cointegrating vector, there is evidence of a level shift, but the elasticities have not changed significantly. The...

This paper estimates the primary structural budget balance (eliminating the effects due to cyclical fluctuations in GDP and oil price) for the central government and public administrations from 1997 to the second quarter of 2010. Some adjustments were made on the IMF methodology to account for...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

This paper estimates the primary structural balance and the fiscal impulse for the Brazilian public administrations from 1997 to 2010. We performed two adjustments: i) initially, one-off measures (including those resulting from creative accounting) were identified; and, ii) after this correction,...

This paper presents econometric estimates for the Brazilian aggregate imports over the period 1996–2010. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that uses the Brazilian quarterly national accounts with this goal in mind. Besides estimating a demand equation (canonical model), as...

This Discussion Paper describes the changes brought about by the 2019 reform in the federal Public Employees' Retirement System (PERS) and the developments in the states, the Federal District and municipalities. Regarding the states and the Federal District, we analyze the details of the new...

This paper addresses a disaggregated analysis which integrates gross and net public debt or, in other words, government assets and liabilities. This approach seemed appropriate due to the recent transition in the patrimonial composition of the public sector undertaken by the means of...

The paper estimates a panel-VAR using data on total expenditures, tax receipts and overall grants received for 5.544 Brazilian municipalities observed from 2002 through 2010. A sequence of hypotheses was investigated by the means of overidentification test statistics. Among our main findings, we...

We estimate a VAR model of the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Several different specifications, with different time frequencies, were estimated. Overall the results were robust to these changes, and can be summed up in the following: i) the pass-through to...

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...