The COVID-19 crisis has revealed the economic vulnerability of various countries and, thus, has instigated the systematic exploration and forecasting of sovereign default risks. Multivariate statistical and stochastic process-based sovereign default risk forecasting has a 50-year developmental...

We address the problem how to estimate default probabilities for sovereign countries based on market data of traded debt. A structural Merton-type model is applied to a sample of emerging market and transition countries. In this context, only few and heterogeneous default probabilities are...

Instruments of risk mitigation play an important role in managing country risk within the foreign direct investment (FDI) decision. Our study assesses country risk by state-dependent preferences and introduces futures contracts as a tool of risk mitigation. We show that country risk assessments...

We quantify the probability that a sovereign defaults on repayment obligations in foreign currency. Adopting the structural approach as first introduced by Merton, we consider the sovereigns ability-to-pay, characterised by the sum of discounted future payment surpluses, as the underlying...

Not only corporate but also sovereign debtors, in particular developing countries, may get into financial difficulties. Contrary to corporate issuers, they decide themselves if they continue to fulfill their debt obligations or convert their debt. I analyze the value of a default-risky sovereign...

In the framework of the industrial economics approach to banking we extend the analysis of hedging against default on loans to the case of two types of credit risk. Standard results on the optimal hedge volume and the hedging effectivity from the single?risk case are shown to carry over to the...

In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...

Results from portfolio models for credit risk tell us that loan concentration in certain industry sectors can substantially increase the value-at-risk (VaR). The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether a tractable "infection model" can provide a meaningful estimate of the impact of...

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...