Showing 1 - 10 of 25,096
line with theory, induce a negative nowcast error but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 30 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328714
Recent studies proposed news about future technology growth as the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. The identification of these news through stock prices in SVARs has been criticized in the past. Therefore, I propose a series of experiments to test that hypothesis by examining its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010281600
Business cycle models with sticky prices and endegenous firm entry make novel predictions on the transmission of shocks through the extensive margin of investment. This paper tests some of these predictions using a vector autoregression with model-based sign restrictions. We find a positive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295880
, demand, monetary and entry cost shocks. The variables entering the VAR are output, inflation, the nominal interest rate … demand, consistent with the effect of a consumption preference shock predicted by the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506624
VAR based search on these periods, we are able to identify an oil price shock that affects the German production even on …. While we concede that typical VAR models put forward in the literature fail to identify oil price shocks that significantly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274918
VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth … and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649427
Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneous-firm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266059
Using a German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The cross-sectional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271782
Is time-varying firm-level uncertainty a major cause or amplifier of the business cycle? This paper investigates this question in the context of a heterogeneousfirm RBC model with persistent firm-level productivity shocks and lumpy capital adjustment, where cyclical changes in uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298831
Using a unique German firm-level data set, this paper is the first to jointly study the cyclical properties of the cross-sections of firm-level real value added and Solow residual innovations, as well as capital and employment adjustment. We find two new business cycle facts: 1) The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298833