Research in both economics and psychology suggests that, when agents predict the next value of a random series, they frequently exhibit two types of biases, which are called the gambler's fallacy (GF) and the hot hand fallacy (HHF). The gambler's fallacy is to expect a negative correlation in a...

Trust is a key dimension in the principal-agent relationship and it has been studied extensively. However, the dynamics, evolution, and intrinsic motivation and mechanisms have received less attention. This paper investigates the intrinsic motivation of trust and it proposes a theoretical model...

Previous work has investigated whether political instability has a negative effect on economic growth, with mixed results, largely because political instability can take various forms. Using synthetic control methodology, which constructs a counterfactual in the absence of political instability,...

Shifts in the bilateral real exchange rate between the countries of migrants' origin and destination alter the real value of international remittances in origin currency relative to their real value in destination currency. Theoretical models predict a response in the form of some adjustment in...

Previous research on inflation targeting (IT) has focused on high-income countries (HICs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Only recently has enough data accumulated for the performance of IT in low-income countries (LICs) to be assessed. We show that IT has not so far been as effective in...

Previous research has found that the relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation is conditional on income levels: deficits tend to be inflationary in developing countries but not in advanced economies. We show that within low-income countries (LICs) the relationship is again conditional:...

For developing countries, it is shown that different exchange rate classification schemes paint a very inconsistent picture. Disagreements between alternative schemes are as great as with the official scheme. Only the official scheme shows a trend towards floating.

Official and four alternative regime classification schemes based on observed exchange rate behaviour are used to examine the relationship with inflation and growth in developing countries. For an identical sample of observations from 73 countries for 1984-2001, only the scheme based on parallel...