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This paper presents experimental evidence from a monetary sticky price economy in which output and inflation depend on … expected future inflation. With rational inflation expectations, the economy does not generate persistent deviations of output … and inflation in response to a monetary shock. In the experimental sessions, however, output and inflation display …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604538
perceived inflation persistence by the private sector. Such a sophisticated policy reduces inflation persistence and inflation … volatility at little cost in terms of output gap volatility. Persistent responses to cost-push shocks and stability of inflation … play is very different. In the case of commitment it relies on expectations of future policy actions affecting inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604690
One empirical argument that has been around for some time and that clearly contra- dicts equity market efficiency is that market prices seem too volatile to be optimal estimates of the present value of future discounted cash flows. Based on this, it is deduced that systematic pricing errors...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269909
earlier studies, we find that US postwar data are consistent both with the view that inflation dynamics are forward … relevant determinant of inflation. We show that this is an important factor contributing to the weak identification of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318951
, we follow Roberts (1997) and Adam and Padula (2003) and use direct measures of inflation expectations. The data source is … the Ifo World Economic Survey, which quarterly polls economic experts about their expected future development of inflation … turns out to more relevant for most countries in our sample. (ii) The use of survey data for inflation expectations yields a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261432
This paper contributes to the old theme of testing for rationality of inflation expectations in surveys, using two very … different surveys in parallel. Focusing on the euro area and using two well-known surveys that include questions on inflation … inflation forecasts. Tests are based on a preliminary discussion of the meaning of Rational Expectations in the macro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604767
perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are … prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation … effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298276
order to facilitate private sector learning and thus ease the future intratemporal inflation-output gap trade-offs. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271452
inflation and output gap stabilization. Specifically, the optimal interest rate rule reacts more aggressively to out …-of-equilibrium inflation expectations and noisy cost-push shocks than would be optimal under rational expectations: the Central Bank exploits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010494352
The paper generalizes Feldstein's criticism (Perceived Wealth in Bonds and Social Security, 1976) of Barro's analysis (Are Government Bonds Real Net Wealth?, 1974) for the case that the interest rate exceeds the growth rate. This is done by considering an economy in steady state where all agents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010308120