We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over...

We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over...

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. By contrast, economic indicators work well...

Die vergangenen Jahre haben die Kehrseite des deutschen Exportmodells verdeutlicht, die Abhängigkeit Deutschlands von seinen Handelspartnern. Besonders schmerzhaft ist dies gegenwärtig gegenüber Russland und potenziell gegenüber China. Insofern scheint es naheliegend, den deutschen...

We present evidence from a repeated survey on risky asset holdings carried out on a representative sample of the German population six times between April and June 2020. Given the size of the Covid‐19 shock, we find little evidence of portfolio rebalancing in April 2020. In May, however,...

The consumer debt of households in Germany totals in the triple-digit billions and is characterized by a wide range of interest rates. Despite the high volume of debt, many people do not know the terms of their consumer credit contracts. This report analyzes new survey data on general knowledge...

In Deutschland addieren sich die Konsumschulden der Haushalte auf ein Volumen in dreistelliger Milliardenhöhe und zeichnen sich durch sehr unterschiedliche Zinskosten aus. Viele Menschen kennen jedoch die Konditionen ihrer eigenen Kredite für Konsumzwecke nicht. Der vorliegende Bericht...

We study the malleability of patience via educational interventions by aggregating evidence from earlier experiments in a meta-analysis and by conducting a field experiment. We find that the average effect of interventions on patience is positive but uncertain. The age of students explains a...

Evidence on the effectiveness of foreign exchange (FX) interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally we...

We study the malleability of patience via educational interventions by aggregating evidence from earlier experiments in a meta-analysis and by conducting a field experiment. We find that the average effect of interventions on patience is positive but uncertain. The age of students explains a...