The use of log-transformed data has become standard in macroeconomic forecasting with VAR models. However, its appropriateness in the context of out-of-sample forecasts has not yet been exposed to a thorough empirical investigation. With the aim of filling this void, a broad sample of VAR models...

Given the relatively low computational effort involved, vector autoregressive (VAR)models are frequently used for macroeconomic forecasting purposes. However, the usuallylimited number of observations obliges the researcher to focus on a relatively smallset of key variables, possibly discarding...

Around the turn of the year 2005/2006, the Russian freezing of natural gas exports to the Ukraine led to a European gas crisis. Using event study techniques, we first investigate whether the Russian suspension of gas deliveries, the announcement of this suspension as well as its withdrawal had...

Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird wegen des schwachen Winterhalbjahres in diesem Jahr nur um 0,4 Prozent wachsen. Allerdings dürfte die Schwächephase wohl bereits überwunden sein; im kommenden Jahr wird das Wachstum mit 1,8 Prozent kräftig sein. Die Weltkonjunktur ist wieder auf einen...

Around the turn of the year 2005/2006, the Russian freezing of natural gas exports to the Ukraine led to a European gas crisis. Using event study technique, we first investigate whether the Russian announcement of suspension of gas deliveries, this suspension itself as well as its withdrawal,...

Die Mietpreise in Deutschland steigen seit einigen Jahren wieder stärker. Vor allem in Metropolen wie Berlin, Hamburg und München lagen die Zunahmen zuletzt über dem gesamtdeutschen Durchschnitt von rund zwei Prozent. Die Bundesregierung möchte auf diese Entwicklung mit einer Mietpreisbremse...

Do timing and time diversification improve the average investor?s stock market return? Contrary to literature?s scenario of wealthy investors, average investors invest each month over life. Many purchases prevent investors from buying at peak, but horizons decrease, giving latter investments...

Expectations form the basis of economic decisions of market participants in an uncertain world. Sentiment indicators reflect those expectations and thus have a proven track record for predicting economic variables. However, respondents of surveys perceive the world to a large extent with the...

Die Krise des europäischen Währungsraums ist nicht vorbei. Zwar ist die Lage an den Finanzmärkten derzeit relativ ruhig, wirtschaftlich scheint die Talsohle in den meisten Ländern durchschritten. Aber fundamentale Konstruktionsfehler der Währungsunion bestehen weiter fort. Werden diese...

In an uncertain world, decisions by market participants are based on expectations. Thus, sentiment indicators reflecting expectations are proven at predicting economic variables. However, survey respondents largely perceive the world through media reports. Typically, crude media information,...