This paper analyzes the relationship between the quality of the commercial credit portfolio and diversification in the financial entities of Argentina during the period 1998-2006. To this effect, a database of the financial sector (banking and non-banking) is used, which allows to consider three...

This paper analyzes the determinants of the interest rate of short-term unsecured loan inter-bank market (call) in Argentina. The results show that the heterogeneous nature of the entities, in terms of size and origin of ownership, impacts on the interest rate agreed. Other additional aspects,...

The Central Banks use diffusion indexes (DIs) to synthesize information from proprietary surveys that complement official statistics generating real time proxies of the economically relevant variables. According to the evidence, the DIs closely follow the economic cycle reflected in those...

The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) implements a monthly Survey of Business Economic Perspectives to capture the business climate and economic perspectives. The survey, includes both qualitative and quantitative questions on past and expected change in different economic variables of the main...

The impact of the business cycle on banks' internally generated cash flow is an important driver in the pro-cyclical dynamics of the traditional banking business and yet the issue has been understated in the discussion on counter-cyclical regulations. Considerable attention has been given to the...

The lack of access to financial services and to credit in particular is an issue in many developing countries. This paper studies the channels through which new borrowers get access to consumer loans and the effect of repayment data distribution both on that access and on subsequent bank...

We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...

Economist usually think and work taking into account the temporal dimension of economic and financial processes. Time plays a key role in the economic decision making process and is a fundamental input for statistical models useful to analyze and predict social behavior. Thus time invades our...

The presence of seasonal fluctuations (regular behavior along the year related to weather or institutional factors) invalidates monthly (quarterly) comparisons. In turn, since inter-annual variations depend on the comparison basis being used, they could provide very little information to the...

Inflation forecasting plays a central role in monetary policy formulation. At the same time, recent international empirical evidence suggests that with the decline in inflation of recent years, the joint dynamics of this variable and its potential predictors has changed and inflation has become...