Die Inflationsraten in Europa verzeichneten in den vergangenen Monaten die höchstenZuwächse der zurückliegenden Jahrzehnte. Österreich hatte für das Gesamtjahr 2022 eineRate von 8,6 %, Deutschland 8,7 %. Ein Profiteur der steigenden Preise ist der Staat, dessenSteuereinnahmen starken...

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S....

The defense-growth nexus is investigated empirically using longitudinal data for Guatemala and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be nonlinear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level-dependent effect of military...

In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method dealing with model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for different types of spatial links. We contribute to existing methods that handle spatial...

This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vector autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We analyze the interaction between monetary policy in the US and the global economy proposing a new class of Bayesian global vector autoregressive models that accounts for time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-GVAR). We find that a contractionary US monetary policy shock...

The current demographic developments and their consequences for workforce ageing challenge the sustainability of intergenerational transfers and economic growth. A shrinking share of the young workforce will have to support a growing share of elderly, non-working people. Therefore, the...

Current demographic developments are expected to challenge the sustainability of welfare in industrialised economies. Persistent low fertility levels and increasing survival rates to older age imply a decreasing share of younger individuals within the labour force that needs to support an...

The classical theory about foreign exchange rate explains its fluctuations as the resulting of a random walk motion. In this paper, such a theory is put into question by performing Brock, Dechert and Scheinkman's (1987) test on the Austrian Schilling - US Dollars exchange rate for the period...

We analyse the dynamics of the standard deviation of demand shocks and of the demand component of GDP across countries in the European Monetary Union (EMU). This analysis allows us to evaluate the patterns of cyclical comovement in EMU and put them in contrast to the cyclical performance of the...