This paper describes a structural dynamic microsimulation model of the household that has been developed to explore behavioural responses to pensions policy counterfactuals in Ireland. The model is based upon the life-cycle theory of behaviour, which assumes that individuals make their decisions...

We propose a new methodology for structural estimation of dynamic discrete choice models. We combine the Dynamic Programming (DP) solution algorithm with the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm into a single algorithm that solves the DP problem and estimates the parameters...

We use a rapid introduction of an unconditional cash grant (child support) in South Africa to estimate the marginal propensity to consume and earn out of a permanent change in unearned income. We find that the marginal propensity to earn is about to -0.25 for single-adult households, and...

This paper discusses how to design, solve and estimate dynamic programming models using the open source package niqlow. Reasons are given for why such a package has not appeared earlier and why the object-oriented approach followed by niqlow seems essential. An example is followed that starts...

Microsimulation models of the LOTTE system are key tools for tax policy-making in Norway and are extensively used in the budget process. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the different modules in the LOTTE family - a non-behavioral tax-benefit model for personal income tax...

Facing an hypothetical, but increasingly, case of default risk on a mortgage or a fall in interest rates, an important issue raised by the borrower is the possibility of minimizing that risk by selecting the best refinancing option. In this paper, a mortgage refinancing model is presented,...

The computational time required to solve and estimate dynamic economic models is one of the main constraints in empirical research. The Endogenous Grid Method (EGM) proposed by Carroll (2006) is known to offer impressive speed gains over more traditional stochastic dynamic programming methods,...

This paper describes a method for solving a class of forward-looking Markov-switching Rational Expectations models under noisy measurement, by specifying the unobservable expectations component as a general-measurable function of the observable states of the system, to be determined optimally...

In this paper we describe a Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) procedure for counting the number of vertex covers in general graphs. The performance of SIS depends heavily on how close the SIS proposal distribution is to a uniform one over a suitably restricted set. The proposed algorithm...

I introduce and evaluate a new stochastic simulation method for dynamic economic models. It is based on recent work in the operations research and engineering literatures (Van Roy et. al, 1997; Powell, 2007; Bertsekas, 2011). The baseline method involves rewriting the household's dynamic program in...