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In this article, we use as case study the Spanish economy in the Early Modern period. We use recent time series data for the period 1492 - 1810. We consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a good empirical description of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015193979
We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195496
We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015199500
To which extent do equity and housing hedge against inflation? Despite the extensive literature, there is only little consensus. This paper presents evidence on this question from the Jordà–Schularick–Taylor Macrohistory Database covering 16 countries from 1870 to 2020. The results depend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015205193
This study provides country-specific empirical evidence on the optimal inflation-growth threshold in the ECOWAS (WAEMU and WAMZ) region from 1996-2022. Although there is large empirical literature on this subject, however, previous studies generally focused on exogenous approaches of determining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015209779
We examine how the occurrence of natural disasters impact the US economy and financial markets using monthly data since 2000. Our analysis reveals large sustained adverse effects of disasters on overall economic activity, with significant implications across various sectors including labor,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015210000
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013359258
This study seeks to examine the stability of the Phillips Curve in Nigeria, as well as to ascertain the applicability of the popular Lucas Critique to the Phillips Curve in Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2018Q3, the model is estimated with robust OLS that accounts for possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362921
This paper extends the existing literature on the open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve by incorporating three different factors of production, domestic labor and imported as well as domestically produced intermediate goods, into a general model which nests existing closed economy and open...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373850