We present limit theorems for locally stationary processes that have a one sided time-varying moving average representation. In particular, we prove a central limit theorem (CLT), a weak and a strong law of large numbers (WLLN, SLLN) and a law of the iterated logarithm (LIL) under mild...

Samuelson (1963) conjectured that accepting multiple independent gambles you would reject on a stand-alone basis violated expected utility theory. Ross (1999) and others presented examples where expected utility maximizers would accept multiple gambles that would be rejected on a stand-alone...

Two new measures for financial systemic risk are computed based on the time-varying conditional and unconditional probability of simultaneous failures of several financial institutions. These risk measures are derived from a multivariate model that allows for skewed and heavy-tailed changes in...

Let (S, B, G ) and (T, C,Q) be probability spaces, with Q nonatomic, and H = {h in C : Q(H) 0}. In some economic models, the following conditional law of large numbers (LLN) is requested. There are a probability space (O,A,P) and a process X = {Xt : t in T}, with state space (S, B), satisfying...

We develop a novel high-dimensional non-Gaussian modeling framework to infer measures of conditional and joint default risk for many financial sector firms. The model is based on a dynamic Generalized Hyperbolic Skewed-t block-equicorrelation copula with time-varying volatility and dependence...

Modern quantitative theories of international trade rely on the probabilistic representation of technology and the assumption of the Law of Large Numbers (LLN), which ensures that when the number of traded goods goes to infinity, trade flows can be expressed via a deterministic gravity equation...

This study demonstrates that the interactions of firm-level indivisible investments give rise to aggregate fluctuations without aggregate exogenous shocks. When investments are indivisible, aggregate capital is determined by the number of firms that invest. I develop a method to derive the...

We develop a novel high-dimensional non-Gaussian modeling framework to infer measures of conditional and joint default risk for numerous financial sector firms. The model is based on a dynamic Generalized Hyperbolic Skewed-t block-equicorrelation copula with time-varying volatility and...